Predicting the weather in Boston for next week is very difficult, but you can generally bet it will hot and humid most of the summer, cold and windy much of the winter, and you should always have a contingency plan because the weather tends to not cooperate.
Predicting returns is much harder than predicting the weather, because returns can fly in the face of available logic, consensus, or, seemingly, facts. At the beginning of 2011, we all knew that the...

